Scott Francis - Road & Reason

Tesla Model Y Sales and Market Share Are Surging

Tesla still leads the EV market in the U.S. and brand loyalty seems to have recovered, but Tesla’s car business is increasingly reliant on Model Y

Ferrari · Growth without Normalization Ferrari · Growth without Normalization

Growth without Normalization

Can Ferrari expand products, clients, usage occasions, and electrification without making Ferrari feel more available, more ordinary, or more comparable?

Tesla · Trust and Customer Contract

Trust and Customer Contract Stakes

If trust holds: Tesla keeps its unique permission from buyers and regulators: faster product cycles, software-led changes, autonomy ambition, unconventional distribution and service, and a more polarizing public identity remain acceptable because the product, charging network, price/value equation, and platform promise still feel meaningfully ahead. The customer contract

Tesla · Trust and Customer Contract

Tesla Trust and Customer Contract Assessment

Tesla still appears to retain a tolerance premium, but the surplus looks thinner and more conditional than in the Model S and Model 3/Y breakthrough eras. The evidence points in both directions: recent registration and sales data suggest buyers can still return when the product/value equation works, while

Porsche · China—The Proving Ground Ferrari · Growth without Normalization

China—The Proving Ground

China is where Porsche’s differentiation is already stripped by market preference—the proving ground for what the non-911 range is worth without the halo, and the live signal on whether Porsche can hold brand and pricing where its strengths aren’t valued.

Porsche · Adapting without Diluting the Ethos Ferrari · Growth without Normalization

Adapting without Diluting the Ethos

Can Porsche build strength on the axes it has underweighted—software, digital experience, market-specific fit—fast enough to stay relevant where its traditional differentiation isn’t valued, without diluting the ethos that earns its margins?

Rivian · Brand and the Adventure Department (RAD) Ferrari · Growth without Normalization

Brand and the Adventure Department (RAD)

Does Rivian's authentic adventure-capability identity survive the move down-market to a volume vehicle — and is formalizing it as a performance sub-brand (RAD) channeling something real, or starting to manufacture it?

Rivian · Direct Distribution Model Ferrari · Growth without Normalization

Direct Distribution Model

Can Rivian's direct-to-consumer model reach buyers at volume—across US states whose franchise laws bar it, and in new markets like Europe—and what does its fight reveal about the dealer model it bypasses?

Rivian · Volkswagen Partnership Ferrari · Growth without Normalization

Volkswagen Partnership

What does the Rivian–VW joint venture reveal about Rivian's durable value—a stronger carmaker, or a software-and-electronics supplier with VW as its first customer—and is dependence on it a lifeline or a ceiling?

Rivian · Viability and the Path to Scale Ferrari · Growth without Normalization

Viability and the Path to Scale

Does Rivian reach self-sustaining volume and a durable positive vehicle gross margin before its capital and independence run out—and is it getting there as a carmaker, or as a technology supplier?

Mercedes-Benz · China and Localized Luxury Ferrari · Growth without Normalization

China and Localized Luxury

Can Mercedes remain aspirational in the market where local EV/software brands are eroding non-domestic premium advantage fastest?